Fig. 3

Differences in mitigation potential when changing each considered factor for the time until 2050 (a) and 2100 (b, note the different scales). Data is based on the assumption of exponential increases in disturbance probability. Each violin plot is created by computing pair-wise differences between simulations with a change in one factor, see section Assessment of the carbon mitigation potential. The split densities show the change in total mitigation potential including substitution effects (blue) and the change in the combined carbon sink only (forest and products). Positive values denote that a higher mitigation potential was simulated compared to its “partner simulation”. In the carbon sink case, this means that it was either a larger carbon sink or a smaller carbon source compared to the “partner simulation”. Note that a negative value does not mean that it was a carbon source. The carbon sink was only smaller than in the “partner simulation”. “More climate change” means subtracting the values of RCP4.5 from the values of RCP8.5, while “less climate change” means subtracting the values of RCP4.5 from the values of RCP2.6. Similarly for decarbonization where the changes to the intermediate 50% decarbonization pace were computed