Table 4 Summary of the projected parameters in the BAU.

Agriculture

 Crop area (thousand hectares)

Time series analysis using 2005–2015 data

  Rice

Historical growth rate (0.07% p.a.)

–

–

  Cassava

Using linear function

y = 41.0x + 1049

0.76

  Maize

Historical growth rate (0.41% p.a.)

–

–

  Vegetables

Using logarithmic function

y = − 75.6ln(x) + 860

0.90

  Oil crops

Using linear function

y = 12.3x + 865

0.76

  Sugarcane

Using linear function

y = 50.7x + 861

0.76

  Other crops

Using logarithmic function

y = − 166ln(x) + 4562

0.64

Livestock (thousand heads)

Time series analysis using 2005–2015 data

 Cattle (dairy)

Historical growth rate (0.62% p.a.^a)

–

–

 Cattle_(other)

Constant during 2015–2050

–

–

 Buffaloes

Constant during 2015–2050

–

–

 Swines

Historical growth rate (1.9% p.a.^a)

–

–

 Goats

Liner regression

y = 16.8x + 318

0.71

 Sheep

Historical growth rate (− 0.27% p.a.^a)

–

–

 Horses

Constant during 2015–2050

–

–

 Duck

Liner regression

y = 950x + 21,582

0.45

 Chicken

Liner regression

y = 18,699x + 191,094

0.79

Land use

 Forest

Government target to achieve 40% [6]

–

–

 Grassland

Constant with 2015

–

–

 Agricultural

Constant with 2015

–

–

 Settlement

Settlement area per capita constant

Population projection based on government [30]

–

–