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Table 4 Summary of the projected parameters in the BAU.

From: GHG mitigation in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in Thailand

Indicators Assumptions Equation* R2
Agriculture
 Crop area (thousand hectares) Time series analysis using 2005–2015 data   
  Rice Historical growth rate (0.07% p.a.)
  Cassava Using linear function y = 41.0x + 1049 0.76
  Maize Historical growth rate (0.41% p.a.)
  Vegetables Using logarithmic function y = − 75.6ln(x) + 860 0.90
  Oil crops Using linear function y = 12.3x + 865 0.76
  Sugarcane Using linear function y = 50.7x + 861 0.76
  Other crops Using logarithmic function y = − 166ln(x) + 4562 0.64
Livestock (thousand heads) Time series analysis using 2005–2015 data   
 Cattle (dairy) Historical growth rate (0.62% p.a.a)
 Cattle_(other) Constant during 2015–2050
 Buffaloes Constant during 2015–2050
 Swines Historical growth rate (1.9% p.a.a)
 Goats Liner regression y = 16.8x + 318 0.71
 Sheep Historical growth rate (− 0.27% p.a.a)
 Horses Constant during 2015–2050
 Duck Liner regression y = 950x + 21,582 0.45
 Chicken Liner regression y = 18,699x + 191,094 0.79
Land use
 Forest Government target to achieve 40% [6]
 Grassland Constant with 2015
 Agricultural Constant with 2015
 Settlement Settlement area per capita constant Population projection based on government [30]
  1. p.a. per annum
  2. ax in the equation is independent variable