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Fig. 6 | Carbon Balance and Management

Fig. 6

From: Questioning emissions-based approaches for the definition of REDD+ deforestation baselines in high forest cover/low deforestation countries

Fig. 6

Quantity of allowable cumulated carbon credits up to 2050, following each alternative deforestation baseline, and expressed as the share of mean yearly national GDP over 2001–2014 (log scale). For each scenario, the range indicates the share of GDP for carbon prices ranging between 5 and 30 USD/tCO2e. ‘AP’, ‘GUF’, ‘GUY’ and ‘SUR’ stand for Amapá, French Guiana, Guyana and Suriname respectively. We assume no debt in case of scenario followed lower than historical average, which explains values 0 attributed to GM-low and GM-high scenarios in Amapá. As a comparison, the contribution of gold-mining to national GDP [21, 23, 26] was added to this figure in the form of black dotted segments, with corresponding year indicated above each segment. This data was uncertain for French Guiana as taken from an interview (https://reporterre.net/La-foret-guyanaise-menacee-par-les-mines-d-or) and not available in official databases, and was denoted with an asterisk. ‘HA’ stands for ‘Historical average’. ‘GM_low’ and ‘GM_high’ stand for the gold-mining models with a low or high assumed future gold price. ‘ERB’ stands for ‘Economically Rational Baseline’. ‘CI’ stands for Combined Incentives models (with three sub-models FPS, NPS and BAU described in Table 1). ‘JRC’ stands for ‘Joint Research Center’ with two associated sub-models for 2050 and 2100

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