Fig. 3

Cumulative predicted deforestation at the regional scale (2015–2050) following each reference scenario (log y and x scales). Red dots indicate observed yearly deforestation over 2001–2014. Mean predicted future deforestation is displayed with an envelope corresponding to the 95% confidence interval of each model. ‘HA’ stands for ‘Historical average’. ‘GM_low’ and ‘GM_high’ stand for the gold-mining models with a low or high assumed future gold price. ‘ERB’ stands for ‘Economically Rational Baseline’. ‘CI’ stands for Combined Incentives models (with three sub-models FPS, NPS and BAU described in Table 1). ‘JRC’ stands for ‘Joint Research Center’ with two associated sub-models for 2050 and 2100