Fig. 2

Cumulated predicted deforestation over 2015–2050 per country (‘ap’, ‘guf’, ‘guy’ and ‘sur’ stand for Amapá, French Guiana, Guyana and Suriname respectively) and per scenario (log y-scale). Dots are mean predicted deforestation and are associated with a 95% confidence interval. ‘HA’ stands for ‘Historical average’. ‘GM_low’ and ‘GM_high’ stand for the gold-mining models with a low or high assumed future gold price. ‘ERB’ stands for ‘Economically Rational Baseline’. ‘CI’ stands for Combined Incentives models (with three sub-models FPS, NPS and BAU described in Table 1). ‘JRC’ stands for ‘Joint Research Center’ with two associated sub-models for 2050 and 2100