Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance

Table 2 Time period and the corresponding annual mean temperature (T _Europe) and annual total precipitation (P _Europe) of Europe for which +1.5, +2, +3 and +3.5 °C global warming compared to pre-industrial times was reached in ECHAM5 GCM global climate for SRES A1B scenario provided by the ENSEMBLE project

	SWL^a (°C)	T _Europe (°C)	P _Europe (mm year⁻¹)	Central year	Period
Reference	+0.68^b	8.6	818	1995	1981–2010
SWL1.5	+1.5	9.6	818	2035	2021–2050
SWL2	+2	10.2	815	2048	2034–2063
SWL3	+3	11.2	818	2072	2058–2087
SWL3.5	+3.5	11.7	821	2085	2071–2100

^a SWL specific warming level relative to pre-industrial (1881–1910) climate. A SWL is defined as the 30-years period when the average global mean temperature reaches a given warming level compared to the pre-industrial period 1881–1910, following Vautard et al. [53]. Due to the fast increase in the projected global mean temperature, there are overlaps across SWL time periods
^bThe SWL in ‘Reference’ period (1981–2010) is the average SWL based on the three global observational datasets: NASA GISS (+0.70 °C; http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), HadCRUT4 (+0.66 °C; http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/) and NOAA NCDC (+0.68 °C; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html#anomalies). Data were Accessed in September, 2016

ISSN: 1750-0680