Fig. 1

The Great Dismal Swamp study area includes the USFWS National Wildlife Refuge and the Dismal Swamp State Park. Classification of the natural communities in the Great Dismal Swamp follows ‘The Natural Communities of Virginia’ [21]. The study area comprises 54,000 ha. These vegetation communities represent the major forest types included in the carbon balance model and ecosystem services assessment. We model transitions for Atlantic white cedar, cypress-gum, maple-gum and pond pine, but do not model any transitions for the upland pine class