Table 2 Dependence of cumulative (2011–2100) energy and land use sector emissions projections on critical model parameters
Cumulative emissions (2011–2100) | ||
|---|---|---|
Nominal \(\big \vert \Delta\)(Alg-Feed,BAU)\(\big \vert\) = 544 \(\pm\) 107 PgC | ||
Parameter shift | Down (Rel.) | Up (Rel.) |
Agricultural emissions | 539 (−0.9 %) | 550 (1.0 %) |
Agricultural residues | 521 (−4.2 %) | 565 (3.8 %) |
Agricultural yields | 540 (−2.6 %) | 543 (−0.3 %) |
Algae program start | – | 494 (−9.2 %) |
Biomass fixed emissions | 602 (10.6 %) | 487 (−10.5 %) |
Energy crop productivity | 572 (5.1 %) | 538 (−1.2 %) |
Energy demand | 516 (−5.1 %) | 569 (4.5 %) |
Feed Pct. from algae | 453 (−16.8 %) | – |
Food demand (Ani.) | 547 (0.5 %) | 541 (−0.6 %) |
Food demand (Veg.) | 540 (−0.8 %) | 548 (0.8 %) |
Forest C sequestration | 517 (−5.0 %) | 571 (5.0 %) |
Global GDP | 537 (−1.2 %) | 549 (0.9 %) |
Non-CO\(_2\) emissions | 544 (0.0 %) | 544 (0.0 %) |
Plantation productivity | 507 (−6.8 %) | 578 (6.3 %) |
World population | 530 (−2.5 %) | 554 (1.9 %) |
Total error (uncorrelated, symmetrized): \(\pm\)19.6 % | ||