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Table 2 Dependence of cumulative (2011–2100) energy and land use sector emissions projections on critical model parameters

From: New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets

Cumulative emissions (2011–2100)
Nominal \(\big \vert \Delta\)(Alg-Feed,BAU)\(\big \vert\) = 544 \(\pm\) 107 PgC
Parameter shift Down (Rel.) Up (Rel.)
Agricultural emissions 539 (−0.9 %) 550 (1.0 %)
Agricultural residues 521 (−4.2 %) 565 (3.8 %)
Agricultural yields 540 (−2.6 %) 543 (−0.3 %)
Algae program start 494 (−9.2 %)
Biomass fixed emissions 602 (10.6 %) 487 (−10.5 %)
Energy crop productivity 572 (5.1 %) 538 (−1.2 %)
Energy demand 516 (−5.1 %) 569 (4.5 %)
Feed Pct. from algae 453 (−16.8 %)
Food demand (Ani.) 547 (0.5 %) 541 (−0.6 %)
Food demand (Veg.) 540 (−0.8  %) 548 (0.8 %)
Forest C sequestration 517 (−5.0 %) 571 (5.0 %)
Global GDP 537 (−1.2 %) 549 (0.9 %)
Non-CO\(_2\) emissions 544 (0.0 %) 544 (0.0 %)
Plantation productivity 507 (−6.8 %) 578 (6.3 %)
World population 530 (−2.5 %) 554 (1.9 %)
Total error (uncorrelated, symmetrized): \(\pm\)19.6 %
  1. Cumulative emissions from the energy and land use sectors in the BAU and Alg-Feed scenarios are recalculated with each model parameter shifted independently as discussed in the SI. Emissions abatement for Alg-Feed relative to BAU is reported in absolute terms and as a percentage of the nominal value (544 PgC). Positive percentages indicate greater Alg-Feed scenario impact relative to BAU (additional climate mitigation), and negative values indicate diminished impact. Nominal parameters values and shift magnitudes are defined in this paper’s SI. All errors are assumed to be uncorrelated and summed quadratically in the bottom row